The USD firms, oil prices advance, equity markets are up, and US yields rise as risk sentiment improves. The U.S. dollar inches higher but remains near multi-week lows as investors weigh cautious optimism around a potential US-Iran peace deal. While safe-haven demand has faded with improving risk sentiment, lingering uncertainty around negotiations is limiting further downside in the greenback. Direction remains headline-driven, with markets balancing the fading war premium against still-fragile geopolitical conditions. Global equity markets move higher, with U.S. stocks extending to fresh record highs as strong tech earnings and AI-driven optimism boost sentiment. Gains are further supported by easing geopolitical concerns and expectations of an extended US-Iran truce, encouraging investors to look past recent volatility. Overall, risk appetite remains firm, with technology stocks leading the advance across major markets. Elsewhere, oil prices advance, supported by ongoing supply concerns and disruption risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz and fragile ceasefire conditions. Meanwhile, gold prices hold steady amid balanced risk sentiment, while Bitcoin eases as investors adopt a more cautious stance. Today sees a light economic calendar, so focus will be on the US Jobs report and a flurry of central bank speakers to help drive intraday direction.
News Headlines. The EU is to relax merger rules in a bid to create "European Champions'. Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree. Spain's Repsol wins back control of Venezuelan oil operations. Taiwan overtakes the UK in stock market value on the AI chip boom. China's growth hits 5% despite Iran war. Ceasefire with Israel expected 'soon', say Lebanese officials. Norway's $2tn sovereign wealth fund has 'no plans' to reduce US assets. Trump threatens to fire Fed Chair Powell and refuses to halt criminal probe. Carney vows to tackle the cost of living in Canada with a new majority government, suspends fuel tax.
In currency markets. Against the U.S. dollar, Asian currencies trade mixed yet resiliently as markets increasingly price in de-escalation of the Iran conflict and a softer USD trend. The Australian dollar strengthens toward multi-year highs, supported by solid employment data and sustained expectations of further RBA tightening. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan holds near three-year highs on stronger-than-expected growth data, while the Japanese yen lags, under pressure amid limited expectations for and ongoing sensitivity to energy prices.
In commodity markets. Oil & Wheat prices strengthen 1.35%. Natural Gas, Gold & Silver prices up 0.2%. Copper prices are flat. Coffee prices tumble 2.9%, and Soybean prices eased 0.25%.
CAD trades flat in early sessions, holding near monthly highs as improving risk sentiment and strengthening oil prices continue to underpin the loonie. Support is reinforced by solid domestic data, with February factory sales rising 3.6% and wholesale trade increasing 2%. Despite the positive backdrop, gains remain measured as markets await further clarity on global growth and geopolitical developments.
EURCAD eases in early trading as the Canadian dollar finds support from strengthening oil prices and improved risk sentiment. While the euro remains underpinned by ECB expectations, near-term price action reflects modest CAD outperformance driven by commodity strength.
EUR slips in early trading, with the single currency easing back below the 1.1800 level as the U.S. dollar finds modest support amid a cautious market tone. While optimism around renewed US-Iran talks continues to underpin broader sentiment, lingering geopolitical risks and positioning are driving a near-term pullback. Direction remains balanced, with markets monitoring incoming data and headlines for further cues.
GBPEUR firms in early trading, pushing above 1.1500 as stronger-than-expected UK data supports the pound. February GDP and industrial production both surprised to the upside, reinforcing near-term GBP strength. Meanwhile, a more cautious ECB stance, with policymakers leaning toward a hold, limits euro support and keeps the cross biased higher.
GBP eases in early trading against the U.S. dollar, slipping from recent highs despite stronger-than-expected UK data, with GDP expanding by 0.5% month-on-month in February, well above the 0.1% forecast. While the pound remains supported by solid domestic fundamentals, a stabilizing USD and cautious market tone are limiting further upside. Near-term direction will depend on sustained risk sentiment and incoming macro data.
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