The USD steadies, oil prices advance, while equity markets & US yields are mixed amid a cautious ceasefire. The U.S. dollar holds near six-week lows, as improving risk sentiment and renewed hopes for US-Iran talks continue to erode safe-haven demand. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy market disruption, markets are increasingly pricing in a diplomatic resolution, keeping the USD under pressure. However, the downside may be limited as investors remain cautious about underestimating the inflationary impact of elevated oil prices and broader global growth risks. Global equity markets are mixed, with U.S. stocks holding near all-time highs amid continued optimism about potential U.S.-Iran peace talks, while futures edge slightly lower. European markets remain flat, while Asian equities finished in positive territory as sentiment improved. Overall, risk appetite is stabilizing, but conviction remains limited as markets await confirmation of further diplomatic progress. Elsewhere, oil prices strengthened, supported by ongoing supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin eased in early trading as improved risk sentiment reduced demand for alternative assets. Focus will be on the Fed's Beige Book, and speeches from BoE Bailey, ECB Lagarde and a flurry of other central bank speakers will help drive intraday direction to currency markets.
News headlines. Strait of Hormuz tankers stop or turn around amid US blockade. Milei's inflation fight stalls in Argentina. Lebanon & Israel hold first direct talks in decades as fight continues. Trump's push to cut US rates akin to 'banana republic', says Yellen. Uber commits $10bn to robo-taxis in strategy shift. Canada, the UK, Australia and Japan call for 'urgent end to hostilities in Lebanon'. The IMF cuts its growth outlook, warning that the world is already drifting toward a more adverse scenario. The US is set to launch the tariff refund system on April 20. Amazon to buy satellite firm Goldstar in $11.57 billion deal to take on Musk's Starlink.
In currency markets. Against the U.S. dollar, G10 currencies ease as caution builds amid the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire. Safe-haven flows and elevated oil prices are supporting the USD, while broader risk sentiment deteriorates. Most currencies weaken as markets shift back to a defensive stance amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
In commodity markets. Oil prices rally 1.5%. Natural Gas, Copper & Coffee prices are flat. Gold prices retreated 0.6%. Silver prices weakened 1%. Soybean prices advanced 0.6%, while Wheat prices eased 0.4%.
CAD trades flat in early sessions after touching a three-week high, with the loonie finding support from advancing oil prices and improved risk sentiment. Gains remain tempered by broader geopolitical uncertainty, while improving U.S. dollar demand continues to provide a modest tailwind. Attention also remains on trade dynamics, with the upcoming USMCA review adding another layer of uncertainty to Canada’s export outlook.
EURCAD eases slightly in early trading, with the Canadian dollar finding support from higher oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite this, the euro remains underpinned by expectations of ECB tightening, with focus turning to further comments from President Lagarde for directional cues.
EUR retreats below 1.1800 after recent highs, as the U.S. dollar finds support amid a more cautious market tone and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. While softer U.S. data and easing inflation pressures continue to weigh on the greenback, ECB commentary remains broadly supportive for the euro, with President Lagarde reiterating a data-dependent stance and leaving the door open for further tightening under an adverse inflation scenario. Near-term direction remains balanced, with markets closely monitoring incoming data and central bank signals for clearer guidance.
GBPEUR trades flat in early sessions, with the cross holding steady as markets digest mixed central bank signals. Comments from BoE Governor Bailey pointing to a cautious, patient stance are offset by ECB President Lagarde’s warnings around downside economic risks, keeping direction balanced. Focus now turns to further remarks from both central bankers, which are expected to provide clearer near-term direction for the pair.
GBP slips in early trading, with the pound fighting to hold above 1.3550 as renewed U.S. dollar demand offsets improved risk sentiment tied to hopes of US-Iran diplomacy. While expectations of a potential ceasefire continue to support broader market mood, rising U.S. yields and cautious positioning are underpinning the greenback. Focus now turns to BoE Governor Bailey’s remarks and Thursday's UK GDP data for further direction.
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